Shenzhen Gas (601139): The trial operation of the receiving station has gradually improved the performance flexibility

Shenzhen Gas (601139): The trial operation of the receiving station has gradually improved the performance flexibility

Event: On August 18, the company announced that the LNG (liquefied gas) receiving and unloading ceremony of the first 南京桑拿网 antique ship of the natural gas reserve and peak shaving project in Dapeng New District, Shenzhen, marked the successful commissioning of the project.

  Opinion: The successful commissioning of the receiving 杭州桑拿 station has further improved the company’s natural gas reserve and peak shaving project (LNG receiving station) with an annual turnover capacity of 1 billion cubic meters, which has been completed as early as 2018, and the gas supply range can cover the entire Pearl River Delta region.

After the receiving station is put into operation, part of the LNG will be gasified into the pipeline to supply gas directly to Shenzhen, and another part will be supplied to the Pearl River Delta region.

  The results of the interim report were affected by the increase in cost. Net profit decreased by at least 6% in the first half of 2019. Natural gas sales were 1.4 billion cubic meters, an annual increase of 2%, of which non-electrical volume increased by nearly 10%, and gas consumption by power plants decreased by 17%.

Since the off-season this year, upstream gas supply companies have maintained price increases, because downstream gas-sensitive industries have led to natural gas power generation and rapid replacement with gas.

The gas supply structure of Shenzhen Gas is characterized by a large proportion of gas and electricity, so it is affected to a certain extent.

In addition, the downward flow of international oil prices has damaged the profitability of LPG.

The company currently supplies three Shenzhen power plants in Baochang, Yuhu and Nantian. The plant gas consumption in 2015-18 is 3.

4.3 billion cubic meters, 4.

6.5 billion cubic meters, 6.

5.6 billion cubic meters, 8.

5.6 billion cubic meters.

  Renovation of the old city area + “Shenzhen Blue” plan promotes the growth of Shenzhen residents and industrial and commercial gas consumption. Shenzhen residents have a natural gas coverage rate of about 52% and a pipe network coverage rate of about 70%.

Thoroughly, Shenzhen has vigorously carried out the transformation of villages in cities. The goal is to complete the pipeline natural gas transformation by more than 600,000 households by 2020 and increase the penetration rate of pipeline gas to 61.

5%, it is estimated that from 2017 to 2020, it will increase about 300,000 residential users each year, and increase the gas consumption by about 6,000 people per year.

  In addition, the “Shenzhen Blue” sustainable action plan released in April 2018 called for the promotion of Shenzhen biomass boiler reform, and the company’s industrial and commercial gas consumption in Shenzhen will continue to increase.

It is expected that the industrial and commercial gas supply of the company will maintain a growth rate of about 10% in 19-20, reaching 5.

900 million cubic meters, 6.

500 million cubic meters.

  The receiving station was put into production to improve performance, and continued to give a “strong recommendation” rating. It is expected that from 2019 to 2021, the company will realize a net profit of return to motherhood10.

3.8 billion / 12.

7.2 billion / 14.

5.6 billion, corresponding to a PE of 15.

74 times / 12.

85 times / 11.

22 times, the company estimates that it is relatively low compared with domestic and foreign companies in the same industry, with overlapping safety margins.

In addition, the company’s cash flow is relatively stable, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.

  Risk warning: the company’s gas sales and business development are less than expected; the operation of the receiving station is less than expected; the company’s purchase and sales spread conversion risk; industrial policy risks