Meng Lily (603313): Performance in line with expectations, optimistic about the long-term development of memory sponges
The company released the 2019 performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 3 in 2019.
6.6 billion, an annual increase of 96.
70%; net profit after deduction is 3.
62 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.
Opinion: The performance is in line with expectations, and a high base has led to a decline in growth in the fourth quarter.
In Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in 2019, net profit attributable to mothers will be 0.
06 million, an increase of 1547 each year.
30% / 123.
91% / 52.
17% / 40.
11%; net profit after deduction is 0.
93 trillion, an increase of 4170 each year.
99% / 56.
93% / 64.
73% / 3.
The concentration of production capacity in 2019 will drive the company’s revenue growth. Benefiting from the decline in raw material prices, net profit continued to increase, and performance was in line with expectations.
The growth rate of net profit in the fourth quarter of 2019 accelerated, mainly due to the substantial decline in raw material prices in the fourth quarter of 2018 and a large profit base.
The non-recurring profit and loss (the hedged profit and loss entity) in 2018Q4 was -1440.
960,000 yuan, the non-recurring profit and loss of 2019Q4 is 1280.
290,000 yuan, hedging profit and loss conversion rate, so 2019Q4 net profit growth after deduction non-accelerated.
Layout of overseas production breaks through the maximization of production capacity, and the climbing of production capacity promotes the quarterly increase in profit margins.
In the context of anti-dumping and trade 无锡夜网 wars, domestic mattress companies will not be able to export directly from the country to the United States, the concentration of exports will increase, and orders will be concentrated in leading enterprises with well-established overseas production layouts.
The company’s overseas layout is leading the industry. In 2019, overseas production capacity will be concentrated, and breakthroughs in production capacity will continue.
All orders affected by anti-dumping have been transferred to Serbian and Thai factories for production, completely avoiding the effects of anti-dumping.
The Thai (self-built) and US factories are gradually put into production. The release of production capacity has accelerated revenue, while the production capacity has continued to climb and production efficiency has increased, thereby driving the gross 佛山桑拿网 profit margin and profit margin to increase quarter by quarter, and performance has entered a new round of growth.
Earnings forecast and estimation: Taking into account the rising prices of raw materials in the future, we lower our earnings expectations.
The EPS is expected to be 1 in 19-21.
44 yuan, corresponding PE is 22X, 14X, 10X.Give “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: raw material prices rise sharply, Sino-US trade friction escalates