Marubeni (603983): Eye care features distinctive profitability and outstanding operating capabilities
Core point of view: Following Shanghai Jahwa, Po Laiya, Yujiahui, cosmetics company Marumi shares will be listed soon.
Brand positioning is the first element in the analysis of the cosmetics industry. It can be broken down into two dimensions: product area and price band. Brands of the same product with the same price band compete with each other. Patent ingredients or feature labels use brand barriers.
Ratings with other domestic cosmetics brands, Marubeni highlights eye care and positions it in the mid to high end.
The main highlights of Marubeni Co., Ltd. are as follows: 1) Brand: differentiated layout with distinctive main brand features.
The main brand medicine beauty accounted for nearly 90% of the company’s revenue. Its success was mainly due to clear brand positioning, leading product changes and matching marketing strategies; Chunji and Lianhuo respectively positioned “food skin care” (mass skin care) and”Confident fashion” (make-up), but is still in the cultivation phase.
2) Channels: The layout is extensive and sinking, and online is an important growth engine.
The prospectus shows that the company mainly expands its channels through the distribution model. It has 16,555 dealer outlets offline, nearly 80% of which are located in third-tier cities and below; online accounts for 41.
8% is mainly for distribution. Except for Tmall & JD.com flagship stores, which are directly operated by distributors, Nimmeya and JD.com, Vipshop and other B2C platforms, reducing the pressure on accounts receivable.
3) Product: Eye care is the “fist product”, with unit price and gross profit margin being dominant.
The company has established technical and brand barriers in the field of eye care. The product price band covers the public end to mid-to-high end, with refined categories and functions and undergoing multiple iterative updates.
Compared with facial skin care products such as creams and lotions, the customer unit price and gross profit margin of eye care products increased, which increased the company’s overall customer 杭州桑拿 unit price and gross profit margin.
4) Finance: outstanding profitability and operating ability, and good cash flow.
Benefiting from brand and category positioning, the company’s gross profit margin is higher than that of comparable companies; at the same time, the company reasonably compresses the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio, so the company’s net margin level is significantly higher than that of comparable companies.
Under the distribution model, the company adopts the model of first payment and then delivery, and the account receivable scale and turnover days are significantly lower than those of comparable companies.
The company’s profit quality is good, and its cash flow / operating income ranks first among comparable listed companies.
Discussion on profit forecast and estimation It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 19-21 will be 5 respectively.
0 billion, 6.
1 billion, 7.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 20 per year.
Assume that based on the issuance of 41 million shares, the total share capital is 4.
01 billion shares, corresponding to 1 in 19-21 EPS.
53 and 1.
Taking Po Laiya, Shanghai Jahwa, Yujiahui three A-share listed cosmetics companies as the estimation reference, the average dynamic PE in 19 years is estimated to be 29.
1X, considering that the company’s growth and the main brand account for a relatively high proportion, we believe that the company’s reasonable variable interval is 19 years PE estimates 24-28X, that is, a reasonable value of 30-35 yuan / share.
Risks suggest that the macroeconomic downturn has a significant adverse impact on optional consumption; the breakdown of e-commerce growth rates and the conversion of offline channel growth rates; the incubation of new brands and new categories did not meet expectations.